October 30, 2025
Latin America, in a world shaped by tensions, stands out as a region with limited interstate conflicts, predominantly democratic systems, and abundant strategic natural resources for the energy transition and global food security.
By Ana Basco and Esteban Actis
The architecture of international trade is undergoing a structural transformation. The growing politicization of trade, the reconfiguration of value chains, and the rise of protectionist measures are defining a new phase of the global economic system. Unlike the previous era, which was driven by efficiency and openness, trade decisions today are increasingly influenced by national security concerns, strategic rivalry, and geopolitical calculations.
This profound transformation presents new challenges for Latin America, but it also creates opportunities for the region to reposition itself strategically in key sectors and value chains.
One increasingly visible trend is the rise of trade conditioned by unilateral decisions: tariffs, export bans, discriminatory subsidies, and restrictive licensing requirements. A decade ago, these types of measures accounted for only 5% of global trade; today, they represent 25% and continue to grow. Globalization has not disappeared, but it has become fragmented. Global value chains are being reorganized according to criteria of resilience, political alignment, and strategic autonomy.
This does not mean complete deglobalization, but rather a shift in its foundations: efficiency at all costs is no longer the priority. Instead, resilience in the face of disruptions and geopolitical tensions has become paramount. The United States and Europe are actively promoting the decoupling of strategic sectors from China (such as semiconductors, green technologies, and critical inputs), while China is responding with restrictions on key exports such as rare earths and sensitive technologies.
In this environment, companies are adopting new strategies to redesign their supply chains. Reshoring (relocating production back to the country of origin) has become a priority for strategic sectors in the United States, supported by significant government incentives. At the same time, nearshoring and friendshoring (moving operations to nearby or politically aligned countries) are gaining momentum.
However, the dominant emerging trend appears to be omnishoring: the broad and simultaneous diversification of suppliers across different regions to reduce dependence on a single country or geographic area. This strategy seeks to increase resilience, prevent disruptions, and adapt to global regulatory and political volatility.
Countries such as Mexico, India, and Vietnam have already benefited from this global reconfiguration by attracting industrial and technological investment. Latin America, in a world marked by tensions, offers limited interstate conflicts, predominantly democratic governments, and abundant strategic natural resources essential for the energy transition (lithium, copper, green hydrogen) and global food security. In addition, the region possesses a significant industrial base in countries such as Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as diversified trade relationships.
In this context, the new geoeconomics imposes additional demands on companies throughout the region. Competing solely on price or operational efficiency is no longer sufficient. Businesses must integrate international politics, geopolitical risk management, and regulatory adaptability as core elements of their corporate strategies.
Several key recommendations can help Latin American companies navigate this new geoeconomic environment by adopting more sophisticated and resilient strategies. First, it is essential to diversify both export and import markets in order to reduce excessive dependence on a single trading partner, particularly when that partner is involved in disputes or exposed to restrictive measures. Companies must also strengthen product traceability, rigorously comply with international regulations, and adopt ESG standards. These capabilities are increasingly necessary for accessing and remaining competitive in highly demanding markets such as the European Union and the United States, where due diligence and transparency requirements continue to expand.
At the same time, investing in geoeconomic intelligence has become critical. This means actively monitoring trade policies, strategic regulations, and global political developments while incorporating specialized teams or consulting services capable of integrating political risk analysis into corporate decision-making. Another crucial dimension is promoting value-added production and innovation by leveraging natural resources as platforms for developing technology industries and associated services—for example, lithium for battery production, copper for electric mobility, or soybeans for biotechnology applications. Finally, companies should explore and deepen productive partnerships within Latin America by integrating regional value chains that can generate economies of scale, reduce logistics costs, and strengthen bargaining power vis-à-vis major international markets. In an era of increasingly frequent global shocks, the region has the potential to become a reliable supplier within global supply chains.
In this new context, Latin America faces two possible paths. One is to capitalize on its relative stability, strategic resources, and proximity to the United States in order to attract investment, add value to its comparative advantages, and gain a stronger position in emerging value chains. The other is to remain on the sidelines of global reorganization, trapped in a model based solely on commodity exports, characterized by limited innovation and little room to withstand external pressures.
The opportunity exists, but it is not automatic. It requires clear political decisions, adaptive business strategies, and stronger public-private coordination. What is at stake is not only external competitiveness, but also the region’s ability to integrate into the global economy with autonomy and a forward-looking vision in an increasingly competitive, fragmented, and demanding world.