Record Support for Regional Integration (IDB). May 2024
Authors: Garnero, Paula; Trombetta, Martin; Merino, María Florencia
Executive Summary
This study analyzes citizens’ attitudes toward regional integration based on data from the 2023 edition of Latinobarómetro, one of the region’s leading public opinion databases, which provides information from a representative sample of 19,205 individuals across 17 Latin American countries.
The main objective of the study is to characterize and examine the strong support among Latin Americans for regional integration, particularly regarding its economic benefits and its impact on people’s well-being and material living conditions. The study seeks to deepen the understanding of this integration-oriented outlook and explore the factors that sustain it. To achieve this, a methodology was developed that combines descriptive statistical analysis with econometric models and techniques.
Main findings:
- Latin America in Tune
Support for regional integration has reached a historic high. In 2023, 8 out of 10 Latin Americans expressed support for regional integration, marking the highest level of integrationist sentiment recorded over the past 28 years.
This unprecedented level of support (79% of the population in favor) represents an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the 2020 survey and may be linked to the rebound of the regional economy following the crisis generated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Across all 17 countries surveyed, the 2023 results show higher levels of support than those recorded in 2020. Uruguay registered the highest level of support (91%), followed by El Salvador (86%) and the Dominican Republic (85%).
- History Repeats Itself
Support for regional integration is higher among men, younger individuals, and people with higher socioeconomic and educational levels. Consistent with previous survey rounds, in 2023 men showed greater support for regional integration than women (83% versus 76%).
Among the population segments with the highest levels of education—those who have completed university studies—support reaches 87%. Among the youngest respondents (15 to 25 years old) and those in the highest socioeconomic category, support stands at 85%.
- Always integrated
Latin America, the preferred option. In the post-pandemic period, support for integration with other countries around the world has also increased (+7 percentage points), although there remains a slight preference for Latin American integration (79%, a difference of 2 percentage points compared to support for integration outside the region).
In 2023, 77% of Latin Americans supported their country’s integration with countries outside Latin America (+7 percentage points compared to 2020). In 15 of the 17 countries surveyed, regional integration is preferred over integration with countries outside the region. Meanwhile, 53% of citizens believe that, over the past five years, their country has deepened Latin American integration. In Chile, 8 out of 10 citizens believe the country has made progress, while in El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico, 7 out of 10 share that view.
- United by employment.
Latin Americans primarily associate regional integration with greater employment opportunities (61%). They also strongly associate it with access to more and better technology (56%) and higher wages (52%). In order of importance, this is followed by opportunities to study or work in other countries (49%), access to a greater variety of products (46%), and access to cheaper products (40%).
In Venezuela, 74% of respondents associate regional integration with more employment opportunities, while 75% link it to higher wages. The connection between regional integration and opportunities to study or work in other countries is particularly strong in the Dominican Republic (70%) and Guatemala (66%). Meanwhile, the idea of access to a greater variety or quantity of consumer goods reaches its highest level in Chile (57%).
Topics Associated with Regional Integration: An Econometric Analysis
- Material Conditions and Cultural Biases
Preferences for different aspects of regional integration are correlated with individuals’ socioeconomic conditions and cultural characteristics.
Interest in technology is higher among men, who have historically been more likely than women to work in industrial and technology-related service sectors and to pursue STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) careers. By contrast, employment-related issues are of greater importance to women, who continue to face greater challenges than men in entering and advancing within the labor market.
- Foundations of Trust
Individuals with higher levels of interpersonal trust and greater confidence in institutions tend to be more supportive of regional economic integration in its various forms.
With the exception of access to technology, higher levels of trust are positively associated with all perceptions of the benefits of regional integration, particularly those related to access to cheaper products and greater employment opportunities.
- Bridges to the Future
Young people place relatively greater value on the opportunities that regional integration provides for studying or working in other countries. This factor is less relevant for older adults, who typically face greater constraints when considering such life changes.
Young people’s perceptions are also linked to stronger support for the gender equality agenda and a greater commitment to environmental protection.
Perceptions of Technological Progress, Sustainable Growth, and Gender
- Confidence about work.
There is widespread optimism regarding the advance of automation. On average, 52% of Latin Americans are optimistic about the next 10 years and believe they will not lose their jobs despite the growing use of robots. Meanwhile, 45% believe this could happen, and 4% either did not know or preferred not to answer.
Younger people (under 25 years old) and those with an intermediate level of education (completed secondary education or incomplete higher education) are the most pessimistic: 49% believe they could be replaced by a robot. In contrast, those with incomplete basic education—generally employed in “non-repetitive,” “non-cognitive,” and “less automatable” tasks—are the most confident about keeping their jobs (56%).
- Few doubts
Mathematics, Programming, and Engineering are essential for accessing better opportunities. Eighty-seven percent of Latin Americans believe that developing skills in these fields is key to improving their employment prospects. This view is even stronger among people with lower levels of education (89%).
In 13 of the 17 countries analyzed, the percentage of people who associate knowledge and skills in these disciplines with better job opportunities is above the regional average. In Brazil, 91% of the population agrees with this idea, and 73% say they “strongly agree.”
- Latin America prioritizes sustainable growth.
Environmental protection and climate change rank high on the public agenda. On average, 84% of respondents believe that economic growth can be reconciled with environmental protection. In 15 of the 17 countries surveyed, more than 80% of the population believes that balancing growth and environmental care is possible.
Uruguay and Costa Rica stand out, with 9 out of 10 citizens supporting this view. When forced to choose between two opposing priorities, 6 out of 10 respondents chose fighting climate change over economic growth, while 3 out of 10 chose the opposite. When asked whether they would be willing to pay a higher price for an environmentally friendly product, 7 out of 10 Latin Americans said they would.
- Progress in the cultural battle against gender inequality.
As in many other regions of the world, significant inequalities in opportunities and material conditions between women and men persist in Latin America. However, in 2023, Latin Americans’ opinions reflected cultural progress in favor of equality.
Most citizens do not believe that men have an advantage when starting a business (55%) and would be willing to pay a higher price for a product made by a woman (52%). Younger people and those with higher levels of education show a stronger inclination toward gender equality.