Authors: Basco, Ana Inés ; De Azevedo, Belisario ; García, Pablo M.
Executive Summary
The 45th edition of Integration & Trade, titled The New Factor in Trade, highlights the INTAL–Latinobarómetro partnership by analyzing Latin Americans’ views through the lens of behavioral economics, econometrics, big data, and artificial intelligence. The publication draws on data from the 2018 Latinobarómetro survey, which interviewed more than 20,000 people across 18 countries in the region. It examines public attitudes toward economic integration and trade, as well as their evolution since 2015. The issue also incorporates insights from behavioral economics to improve both survey design and the interpretation of results, enhancing the quality of information collected and its usefulness for public policymaking.
The main findings are summarized below:
1. Public Support for Integration and International Trade
Seventy-two percent of Latin Americans support regional economic integration, and 73% favor increased international trade. This support is driven by perceptions that trade creates jobs (57%), expands product variety (38%), raises wages (36%), and lowers prices (32%). However, support falls significantly—to 46%—when respondents are presented with information about potential negative effects of trade, highlighting the importance of framing in shaping public opinion.
2. Contradictory Views on Migration
While 88% support the free movement of workers, 63% believe that immigration negatively affects them. This ambivalence reflects a gap between general principles and personal perceptions. Paraguay is the only country where a majority views immigration as beneficial.
3. Preference for Domestic Products vs. Actual Behavior
Although most respondents express a preference for domestic products, that preference declines sharply when imported alternatives are cheaper. For example, only 18% choose a domestic product when the imported option costs 10% less, despite 47% stating that they would prefer the domestic product under those circumstances. This reveals a gap between stated preferences and actual behavior, influenced by factors such as price, design, brand, and chance.
4. Factors Shaping Opinions on Integration
Age, gender, and education levels influence opinions on economic integration and trade, whereas human capital endowments and employment sector do not. Ideas, values, and emotions appear to be more powerful drivers of attitudes than direct material interests.
5. Uncertainty and Media Perceptions
Using big data analysis (the GloVe model), the study found that uncertainty surrounding economic integration in regional media increased between 2005 and 2017, particularly following the 2008 global financial crisis and again in 2016–2017. In contrast, perceptions of technology became increasingly positive after 2012.
6. Technology, Privacy, and Trust
Although 62% of respondents are concerned about data privacy, 90% support the use of public technologies such as surveillance cameras and drones for security purposes. In addition, 46% fear that robots could replace their jobs, a concern that increases with educational attainment. More than half (52%) believe that limits should be placed on the replacement of human workers by robots.
7. Contribution of Behavioral Economics
The publication includes pioneering public opinion experiments using alternative information frames to demonstrate how decisions and perceptions are shaped by cognitive biases, available information, and the way issues are presented. It advocates for the institutionalization of behavioral sciences within governments to support the design of more effective public policies that better reflect how people actually think and behave.