Public Opinion on Regional Integration Over Time: A Look at the Last 25 Years (IDB)
February 2023
Authors: Paula Garnero, Magdalena Barafani, María Florencia Merino.
Executive Summary:
This study analyzes the evolution of Latin Americans’ support for regional integration over a period of approximately 25 years. The analysis is based on data collected between 1995 and 2020 by Latinobarómetro, one of the leading public opinion databases in Latin America. The main findings show that support for regional integration has become more firmly established over time. In addition, the study finds that higher levels of economic growth, education, and income equality are associated with stronger support for regional integration.
Key Findings
1. Support for regional integration has strengthened over time.
Over the past 25 years, Latin Americans have consolidated their support for regional economic integration. The share of people in favor of integration increased from 70% (1995–2010) to 74% (2010–2020).
Uruguay, Colombia, and Argentina rank as the countries with the highest historical average levels of support for regional economic integration (79%, 78%, and 78%, respectively).
During the 1990s, Colombia (86%) and Nicaragua (80%) stood out as the strongest supporters of integration. In the first decade of the 21st century, Uruguay (80%) and Chile (78%) led support levels. In the most recent decade, Uruguay (85%) and Argentina (81%) recorded the highest levels of support.
2. Perceptions improve when the economy grows.
Economic cycles appear to influence support for integration, although with some time lag. There is a positive association between support for integration and economic growth: for every 10 percentage-point increase in GDP per capita, the probability of supporting regional integration rises by 2.3 percentage points.
A relationship is also observed between perceptions of being integrated and economic openness, although of lower magnitude (0.2 percentage points). In this regard, the economic and trade crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, together with the slower recovery associated with the war in Ukraine, could lead to a decline in support for regional integration in future measurements.
3. Men are more likely to support greater integration.
Throughout the entire period analyzed, support for regional economic integration was higher among men than among women. Between 1995 and 2020, the average regional gender gap was 7 percentage points, ranging from a minimum of 3.5 percentage points to a maximum of 10.2 percentage points across countries.
4. Young people consistently favor integration.
Historically, younger populations in Latin America have shown the strongest support for regional economic integration. On average, 74% of individuals aged 15 to 36 supported integration during the period 1995–2020.
Support declines progressively with age, reaching a low of 65% among individuals over 65 years old.
However, contrary to descriptive evidence and existing literature, the quantitative analysis only confirms a statistically significant relationship between support for integration and age among individuals under 25 years old, with a negative association (-0.86 percentage points).
5. Income and educational inequality affect support for integration.
The study identifies significant differences in support for regional integration between higher- and lower-income population groups (+24.5 percentage points), as well as between individuals with higher education and those with only basic education (+24.6 percentage points).
The quantitative model confirms the statistical significance of both socioeconomic status and educational attainment in explaining support for integration.
6. Different regional blocs receive different levels of support.
Citizens of countries belonging to the Pacific Alliance show, on average, 75% support for regional economic integration. MERCOSUR and the Andean Community (CAN) follow with 74% and 73%, respectively.
Central America and Mexico rank lower, with support levels of 70% and 65%, respectively, despite exhibiting higher levels of economic openness during the 1995–2020 period.
While the econometric model does not confirm a significant relationship between support for integration and economic openness, it does find a significant association between support levels and membership in different regional blocs.
7. Perceptions matter.
The econometric model shows that perceptions of a country’s overall situation and its relative progress significantly influence support for integration.
Individuals who believe their country is in a very good situation are more likely to support regional integration (+1.9 percentage points), whereas those who believe the country is in a very poor situation are less likely to support it (-5.1 percentage points).
Similarly, individuals who perceive their country as progressing are 6.3 percentage points more likely to support integration, while those who believe the country is declining are 4.1 percentage points less likely to do so.
8. Trust matters most when it comes to government.
Latin America is often characterized as one of the least trusting regions in the world, with low levels of both interpersonal and institutional trust.
The econometric analysis indicates that support for integration is more strongly associated with trust in government than with interpersonal trust (which was not statistically significant). The probability of supporting regional integration increases by 5.5 percentage points among individuals with high trust in government and decreases by 4.7 percentage points among those who report no trust in government.